XRP’s price fluctuated between $2.57 and $2.61 on February 2, 2025, with a market capitalization surpassing $150 billion and a daily trading volume of $12.19 billion. The cryptocurrency experienced intraday price swings between $2.52 and $2.95, indicative of significant volatility as supply outpaced demand.
XRP price fluctuations signal bearish trend
The hourly chart for XRP indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with price attempts to rise failing to gain traction. This trend is characterized by consistent decreases in both peak and trough prices. Resistance is positioned at $2.75, while support sits at $2.50. If XRP fails to break through the resistance, it may descend towards a Fibonacci extension target of $2.40. The relative strength index (RSI) is near neutral, suggesting potential further declines if selling persists. Concurrently, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) reflects a negative alignment, strengthening bearish projections for XRP.
A broader view on the four-hour chart shows XRP recently underperforming critical exponential moving averages (EMA) and simple moving averages (SMA), signaling enduring downward momentum. A notable rejection at $2.75 highlights a lack of buyer conviction, leading to deeper price corrections. The $2.50 support zone is crucial; breaching this level could trigger a decline to $2.40. Further resistance appears at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $3.05, which necessitates a decisive upward close to indicate a recovery. Until such a breakthrough occurs, traders favor bearish strategies while monitoring key resistance levels for entry points.
An analysis of the daily chart presents a persistent bearish scenario where XRP struggles to reclaim previous highs, hindered by the 50-day EMA and SMA now acting as resistance. These levels predict further depreciation, while the 100-day and 200-day averages provide more distant support at $2.14 and $1.59, respectively. A drop below $2.50 could lead to a descent towards these lower support levels. Conversely, a daily close above $2.75 may suggest a bullish reversal if accompanied by strong demand and movement past the 50% Fibonacci level at $2.91.
Oscillators provide mixed signals: the RSI stands at 38.83, nearing oversold levels, while the Stochastic score of 31.52 and the commodity channel index at -215.76 indicate indecision. The average directional index at 18.91 suggests weak trend strength. The awesome oscillator recorded a value of 0.208, hinting at slight upward momentum, while the MACD value of 0.081 aligns with the overarching bearish outlook.
Moving averages indicate a consistent bearish sentiment across the 10-, 20-, 30-, and 50-day EMAs and SMAs. Only the 100- and 200-day averages provide bullish signals, indicating some stability in the longer-term outlook. A prolonged descent below $2.50 may challenge these deeper support levels, while overcoming significant resistance at $2.75 and $2.91 is vital for any bullish momentum.
Market context and regulatory prospects
Over the past seven days, XRP’s price dropped by 27% from $3.07 to $2.23, attributed to a wider decline in cryptocurrencies spurred by tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China. These elevated tariff rates are expected to increase consumer prices, potentially leading the U.S. Federal Reserve to hesitate on cutting interest rates this year.
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This decline follows a substantial growth phase where XRP appreciated by 600% between November 2024 and January 2025, making the current price adjustments appear as a minor setback. The previous surge was fueled by optimism surrounding Trump’s electoral victory and favorable developments in XRP’s legal disputes. Anticipated regulatory decisions from the SEC, particularly regarding the approval of Ripple’s ETF this year, are viewed as potential catalysts for future price increases.
The reaction to recent tariff announcements impacted market sentiment, leading investors to withdraw from riskier assets. Given that cryptocurrencies trade continuously, the immediate impact was felt by XRP before other markets reacted; S&P 500 futures indicated a potential 2% drop on February 3.
Despite current corrections, XRP has exhibited significant volatility in its recent yearly performance, compared to the S&P 500. XRP recorded returns of 278% in 2021, a decline of 58% in 2022, an increase of 81% in 2023, and 234% in 2024. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, containing 30 stocks, has demonstrated relatively stable and superior performance against the S&P 500 over the past four years.
Investors are also evaluating XRP against Bitcoin, which has seen smaller growth of 52% since Trump’s election. XRP’s case is bolstered by a potentially friendlier SEC under Trump’s administration, which may lead to a withdrawal of ongoing legal actions against Ripple, although this remains speculative.
Featured image credit: Ripple
