The April US CPI data will be released tomorrow, a day after the US-China trade deal’s confirmation. The Trump tariff introduction and the trade war with China influenced the Bitcoin price downtrend and the crypto market crash. However, the key macroeconomic events like the U.S. Consumer Price Index and others could bring different results. Let’s discuss.
US CPI Data Release Expectations & More to Know
After the March negative U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, the eyes are on the April stats, which could bring a crypto market rally. 10x Research, a prominent digital asset researcher, has claimed to witness a steady CPI growth rate for April, at 2.4% YoY.
Other experts have forecasted the US CPI to rise 0.3% in April and core CPI to rise 2.8% YoY, but the uncertainty remains. It is an important metric, as the US-China trade war with tariff implementation above 100% affected the global economy. Moreover, the March U.S. consumer price inflation data greatly disappointed investors.
Looking at US economic data in the upcoming week, we get a confluence of what are normally the second week (inflation) and third week (retail sales, industrial production, etc.) reports, with a focus on Tuesday (CPI) and Thursday (PPI, retail sales, and industrial production).… pic.twitter.com/EiIzdh12xv
— Neil Sethi (@neilksethi) May 12, 2025
Just recently, the US-China trade talks settled with reduced tariffs, pushing the Bitcoin price to $105k. As the uptrend has already begun, a further rally could form with the US CPI data release.
Bitcoin Price to Hit New ATH Claims 10x Research Founder
In an interview with CoinDesk, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen forecasted steady US CPI data before predicting a BTC price rally, calling it the bullish catalyst.
If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative tariffs, this week’s inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst.
He further added that “CPI could be bullish, and may bring new all-time highs.” Many other crypto experts’ Bitcoin price predictions are in unison, forecasting massive gains with the US CPI data.
Cathie Wood’s Bitcoin price prediction is more extravagant, as she foresees BTC hitting $1.5 million by 2030. However, in a recent CNBC interview, she acknowledged the difficulty of such a 500% price increase. Still, she claimed rising intentional interest, such as Metaplanet Bitcoin buy and others, could favor the rally.
How would the US CPI Data Release Affect Bitcoin Price?
The BTC price performance can be anticipated in three scenarios, depending on US CPI data. If the CPI came to 2.3% or below, the market would take it as a sign of cooling inflation, increasing the odds of Fed rate cuts, which they kept standing in the recent FOMC meeting.
In this case, and 10x Research founder’s take, Bitcoin could hit a new ATH. However, other crypto market macroeconomic events also need to favor the same trajectory.
The second scenario of CPI above 2.4% may result in the Fed delaying rate cuts. As a result, BTC might witness consolidation or a short-term dip.
In the last scenario, Bitcoin’s performance remains steady and unaffected. Investors must look for further clarity on the subject and watch for key support levels.
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