- Solana grapples with potential price drops due to $3B token unlocks, yet ETF interest hints at robust future demand.
- Interest in Solana ETFs surges, potentially boosting SOL with institutional investments.
Solana has become the focus of ETF speculation after Franklin Templeton filed for a Solana Trust in Delaware, a move that could signal an upcoming exchange-traded fund (ETF) application. This aligns with filings from Grayscale, VanEck, and other major asset managers.
However, Solana faces a significant challenge as $3 billion worth of SOL is set to be unlocked in the coming months, raising concerns about supply-driven price pressure.
Historically, token unlocks have triggered price declines, and investors are now weighing the potential downside against growing institutional interest. Meanwhile, Solana’s price remains stuck below key resistance levels, with bearish technical indicators suggesting further downside risk.
Solana’s $3 Billion Unlock Sparks Bearish Sentiment
Solana faces a critical period as it braces for the largest token unlock since its inception, releasing 15.7 million SOL into the market over the next three months. Starting this month, the unlocks are expected to inject a substantial volume of tokens, with over 3 million SOL slated for February alone.
This event has historically led to price declines for cryptocurrencies as market supply increases without a corresponding rise in demand. In August, a similar scenario saw Solana’s price tumble nearly 20% following a $340 million unlock.
Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator show bearish momentum, signaling potential downside risk. If SOL fails to break above resistance, it could decline toward the channel’s lower boundary, with key support levels at $181 and $163.
ETF Hopes Grow as Institutional Interest in Solana Expands
Despite short-term bearish pressure, interest in Solana ETFs continues to build. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has acknowledged filings for Solana spot ETFs from 21Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, and VanEck. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimate a 70% chance of approval for a Solana ETF in 2025, reinforcing optimism for future institutional adoption.
Franklin Templeton’s recent registration of a Solana Trust in Delaware suggests it may enter the ETF race soon. Historically, trust registrations have preceded official ETF applications, signaling strong institutional confidence. If approved, a Solana ETF could drive fresh capital inflows and strengthen the asset’s long-term growth prospects.
As CNF reported, the buzz around a Solana ETF intensified following its involvement with high-profile memecoins like “Trump bomb” and “MELANIA.” These tokens demonstrate Solana’s robust infrastructure and scalability, bolstering its appeal to institutional investors.
SOL Price Faces Resistance as Whales Continue Accumulating
Solana has struggled to break past the $206 resistance level, which aligns with the upper boundary of a descending channel. Following a rejection at this key level, bearish momentum has increased. According to Coinglass data, $8.32 million in Solana futures were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the majority of the losses. If the bearish trend persists, SOL could drop toward $163 or even $115 if critical support levels fail.
Despite the price struggles, on-chain data reveals that large investors continue accumulating SOL. A whale recently withdrew 61,319 SOL—valued at $12.4 million—from Binance and OKX after remaining dormant for two months. This investor had previously executed two profitable trades, making $8.47 million.
According to CoinGlass, Solana saw a $16 million spot market inflow earlier this week on Monday, marking the first major buying activity in ten days. This sudden influx indicates renewed investor interest as traders work to keep SOL above the crucial $200 level. Spot inflows are often a sign of shifting market sentiment, suggesting that buyers are confident at current prices.
As CNF reported, Polymarket bettors predict an 85% chance of SEC approval by the end of 2025. However, regulatory uncertainty remains challenging, as SOL has been classified as a security in previous SEC cases.
