More than 4.3 million homes across the U.S. face a high wildfire risk, putting an estimated $2.15 trillion in residential property value in jeopardy, according to a new report from climate risk analytics firm ZestyAI.
The AI-driven study, which analyzed 126 million properties nationwide, found that wildfire threats extend far beyond traditionally high-risk regions.
While California leads with $1.16 trillion in at-risk property, other states — such as Colorado ($190.5 billion), Utah ($100.3 billion), and North Carolina ($71.2 billion) — also face mounting exposure.
Wildfire risk spreading beyond the west
Though the western U.S. has historically borne the brunt of wildfires, ZestyAI’s analysis shows that threat spreading eastward. Several states in the South and Midwest are experiencing heightened wildfire risk, including:
- North Carolina: 4.6% of homes at high risk
- Kentucky: 2.9%
- Tennessee: 2.3%
- South Dakota: 11.0%
As residential development expands into fire-prone landscapes, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) continues to grow, increasing both the number of vulnerable properties and the financial burden on homeowners.
At the same time, rising insurance costs and coverage availability concerns are leaving one in eight U.S. homeowners underinsured or uninsured, a number expected to rise, ZestyAI added.
“Wildfires are threatening more properties than ever before, with billions of dollars in exposure even in areas many people don’t associate with fire risk,” said Attila Toth, founder and CEO of ZestyAI. “Yet, too many homeowners are finding themselves uninsured or underinsured just as these disasters become more frequent and severe.”
Toth noted that insurers have long relied on broad, regional risk models, which can unfairly limit coverage for some homeowners while failing to accurately price risk for others.
AI-driven analytics, he explained, are reshaping how insurers assess wildfire risk by delivering property-specific insights, allowing for more precise underwriting.
“By providing granular, property-specific insights, we’re helping insurers make smarter underwriting decisions — keeping coverage available in high-risk areas while ensuring that homeowners who take mitigation steps are recognized,” Toth said.
In 2024, ZestyAI’s risk models helped insurers extend coverage to 511,000 previously uninsurable homes. The company projects that number will double in 2025, potentially restoring coverage to 1 million properties.
“Even in high-risk areas, responsible homeowners deserve access to protection when disaster strikes,” Toth said.
