The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has revised its previous 2025 mortgage forecast, raising its projection for purchase originations while trimming projections for refinances from its January forecast.
Its updated forecast, released Feb. 19, put this year’s total origination volume at a projected $2.055 trillion, up slightly from January’s $2.052 trillion forecast. The MBA still forecasts 2026 to end at $2.37 trillion in volume.
Regarding purchase originations in its 2025 mortgage forecast, the MBA revised its 2025 expectations to $1.42 trillion from January’s $1.39 trillion projection.
The MBA, however, dialed back its refinance expectations. The trade association now expects just $112 billion in refinance activity during Q1 2025; and its refi forecast now projects $638 billion in total volume this year, down from its earlier projection of $660 billion. That’s a 5% drop.
The MBA’s latest mortgage applications measure saw the refinance share of mortgage activity shrink after a few weeks of strong activity, decreasing to 38.7% of total applications from 40.2% the week prior.
New home sales, which would likely take a big hit if new tariffs occur, saw a downshift as well in the latest originations forecast, decreasing to 756,000 from January’s 776,000 forecast. The association, however, raised the expectation for total existing home sales to reach 4,359,000 by the end of 2025, up from January’s forecasted 4,260,000.
As for mortgage rates, the MBA still predicts that 2025 and 2026 will end at 6.5% and 6.4%, respectively.
The association’s February 2025 economic forecast predicts 2.1% GDP growth for 2025, up from 1.9% predicted last month.
