Bitcoin (BTC) clings to $94,350 ahead of tomorrow’s high-stakes FOMC meeting, with traders bracing for wild price swings as the Fed weighs stubborn inflation against White House pressure for rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98.2% probability of rates remaining unchanged, while technical indicators suggest a potential $100K breakout thesis.
Fed Chai Powell’s Dilemma: Inflation Persistence vs. White House Pressure
Trump’s tariffs and his comments show that the White House has been increasingly vocal about the need for rate cuts, However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unconvinced and has stuck to his “wait-and-see” stance.
“Powell won’t cut rates based on economic forecasts alone. The Fed needs to see actual deterioration in employment data before making its move,” notes a former high-ranking Fed official who worked alongside him.
Despite the tension between political desires and economic reality, the Fed Watch Tool currently shows overwhelming consensus (98.2% probability) that rates will remain unchanged at 425-450 basis points tomorrow. This shows that Powell is ready to wait it out. It also highlights the disconnect between market expectations and political pressures.
On the other hand, stubborn inflation data continues to complicate the Fed’s decision-making process, which will be a key topic to observe in the FOMC meeting on May 7.
Treasury Buybacks & Recession Signals: Mixed Messages for Bitcoin
In a significant yet underreported development, the Fed announced a $5 billion monthly Treasury buyback program that effectively maintains its position as a net buyer. This technical adjustment caps long-end yields even as short-term rates edge higher, creating a complex yield curve dynamic that Bitcoin traders are still coming to terms with.
The economic outlook remains precarious. Recession probability models now show a 57% chance of economic contraction in 2025 – better than last week’s 63% reading, but still alarmingly high. This uncertainty, coupled with potential tariff impacts from the Trump administration, creates a challenging backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Technical Picture: BTC’s Make-or-Break Level Identified
Bitcoin’s recent price action screams uncertainity.
- After getting firmly rejected from the $97.1k to $98.1k resistance zone over the weekend, BTC slid nearly 4.5% before finding support.
- The $93k to $102.5k is the range where 70% of Bitcoin’s trading volume occurred during its lengthy consolidation between November 2024 and February 2025. This high-volume zone typically provides strong support and resistance levels where buyers and sellers are in agreement, creating a sideways movement.
- The $93k level is a key demand zone that requires traders to pay close attention to. A show of strength from buyers here could catalyze an explosive 10% rally toward the range high of $102.5k. However, blindly buying at these key support levels is dangerous.
Ideally, investors should wait for clear confirmation of support formation – specifically, the formation of a series of higher lows and increasing buy volume near the $93k threshold or a huge spike in selling volume without a price follow-through.
If Bitcoin can’t hold $93,000, it will most likely slide lower to test the next value area between $81k to $88.4k. Here, Bitcoin consolidated throughout March 2025 and early April 2025. This zone could provide exceptional buying opportunities, hinting at a bullish Bitcoin price forecast for those patient enough to wait for them.
Critical Flashpoints Ahead of Tomorrow’s FOMC & Interest Rate Decision
As traders prepare for tomorrow’s announcement, several key variables will determine Bitcoin’s next major move:
- Powell’s Forward Guidance: While the rate decision itself is largely priced in, Powell’s post-meeting comments will be scrutinized for any shift in tone regarding inflation persistence or labor market concerns.
- Jobs Data Emphasis: Investors need to closely watch for how prominently Powell features employment statistics in his assessment. Increased focus here could signal the Fed’s willingness to consider easing if labor markets deteriorate further.
- Support/Resistance Validation: The $93,000 level represents the immediate battleground, with the $97,100-$98,100 zone providing the first major resistance if bulls regain control.
To conclude, the convergence of these technical and macroeconomic factors creates a perfect environment for heightened volatility that could potentially propel Bitcoin price higher or lead to steep corrections. Either way, traders need to be prepared for an opportunity.
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