- Bitcoin’s low volatility phase suggests a major price move is on the horizon, with historical patterns indicating potential 20–30% swings.
- Institutional accumulation and favorable regulatory shifts could serve as key catalysts for an upcoming Bitcoin rally.
Bitcoin’s recent price stability is drawing significant attention from analysts and investors, as historical patterns suggest that low volatility often precedes substantial market movements. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin’s one-week realized volatility has dropped to 23.42%, a level rarely observed in the past four years.
A CNF report highlighted that Bitcoin’s funding rate has fallen to 0%, raising questions about the next directional move for BTC’s market price. Daan Crypto Trades echoed this sentiment in a tweet, stating that BTC remains in a tight range.
$BTC Range still ranging.
Meanwhile, volatility is trending down as price is getting more and more compressed.
Even during yesterday's drama, price still closed at the same price region which it has done so for the past 2 weeks. pic.twitter.com/pu13Y9J15r
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) February 22, 2025
Similar volatility compressions occurred in October 2024 (22.88%) and November 2023 (21.35%), both of which were followed by notable price shifts. This historical trend suggests that the current market calm could be a precursor to significant volatility.
Market Analysts Anticipate Imminent Price Movement
The prolonged period of reduced volatility has led experts to predict a substantial price movement for Bitcoin. Historically, low-volatility phases have been followed by price fluctuations ranging from 20% to 30% or more.
Analysts are closely monitoring technical indicators, particularly tightening Bollinger Bands, which often signal upcoming volatility.
Potential Catalysts for Bitcoin’s Next Move
According to multiple sources, several key factors could drive Bitcoin’s next major price movement.
Firstly, influential figures in the crypto industry, such as Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, have hinted at increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Institutional interest of this scale often strengthens market sentiment, potentially triggering higher demand and price appreciation.
Secondly, the U.S. administration’s increasingly favorable stance on cryptocurrency regulation could play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. Policies aimed at fostering crypto adoption and providing clearer regulatory frameworks may boost investor confidence, leading to greater institutional and retail participation.
Lastly, Bitcoin’s price is currently experiencing a period of compression alongside historically low volatility, a combination that has previously signaled significant market shifts. Traders are closely monitoring key support and resistance levels, as a breakout in either direction could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next big move.
At the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading at $95,713, reflecting a 0.50% decrease in the past day and a 0.59% decline over the past week. The intraday high reached $96,581, with a low of $95,097. See BTC price chart below.
