Ripple (XRP) price has declined to $2.3 on Friday, March 15, down 30% from the recent peak of $3.1 reached when the US SEC confirmed XRP ETF filings by Grayscale in February. Key technical indicators on the XRP/USD weekly charts show critical levels XRP price must cross to hit $20 if the ETF filings are approved.
Ripple (XRP) surges 5% as SEC Settlement Talks Begin
Rippple (XRP) price jumped 5% to reclaim the $2.3 support level following reports that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could classify XRP as a commodity in its ongoing legal battle with Ripple Labs. This development comes as part of a potential settlement framework that could remove regulatory barriers surrounding XRP ETF approval.
On March 14, sources close to the negotiations revealed that SEC officials are discussing whether to treat XRP similarly to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are already considered commodities under U.S. law.
If XRP secures commodity status, it could facilitate the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), a move that has driven speculation among investors.
Crypto market analysts note that an official SEC statement confirming XRP’s commodity classification could act as a catalyst for a major price rally.
The last time similar speculation surfaced, XRP price surged from $0.90 to $3.1 in under two months. If the SEC provides regulatory clarity soon, XRP could test resistance levels at $3.50 and $5 before eyeing a more ambitious target at $20.
When Could the US SEC Approve XRP ETF?
The timeline for an XRP ETF approval hinges on several key regulatory developments. The SEC is currently reviewing multiple crypto ETF applications, including those for Ethereum and XRP, amid increasing pressure from institutional investors seeking diversified exposure to digital assets.
Industry experts predict that an XRP ETF could gain approval in late Q3 or early Q4 of 2025, depending on how Ripple’s legal battle unfolds. If Ripple successfully secures commodity status for XRP and resolves the SEC lawsuit through a settlement, the regulatory pathway for an XRP ETF could become significantly clearer.
Historically, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 triggered a wave of institutional inflows that pushed BTC price to new all-time highs. A similar scenario could unfold for XRP if the SEC greenlights a dedicated ETF product.
Analysts project that an XRP ETF could attract over $5 billion in inflows within the first few months, potentially pushing XRP price towards $10 in the short term and $20 in a prolonged bullish cycle.
With growing institutional interest and positive regulatory momentum, XRP remains one of the top contenders for the next big ETF approval.
The next major catalysts to watch include upcoming court rulings in the Ripple vs. SEC case and further statements from SEC Chair Gary Gensler on the regulatory framework for crypto-based ETFs.
XRP Price Forecast 2025: Is $20 a viable target?
XRP price is consolidating around $2.38 after retracing from its recent high of $3.10, with technical indicators signaling a potential move toward the $20 target by 2025. The Bollinger Bands on the monthly chart show an expansion phase, suggesting increased volatility, while the price remains above the midline support, indicating sustained bullish momentum.
The MACD histogram continues to trend positively, confirming strong upward momentum, though the signal line crossing above 0.23 warrants caution.
A bullish scenario unfolds if XRP reclaims the $2.57 resistance and maintains a monthly close above this level.
This would confirm support at the upper Bollinger Band, allowing for a continuation toward the next psychological resistance at $5, where historical sell pressure previously emerged.
If buying pressure sustains through 2024, a breakout above $5 could pave the way for a parabolic rise, with Fibonacci extensions pointing to $10 and beyond, fueled by ETF speculation and increased institutional adoption.
Conversely, a bearish divergence in MACD or a failure to hold $2.00 as support could signal a deeper correction.
A breakdown below $1.90 would expose XRP to downside risks, potentially testing the $1.00 psychological floor before a renewed uptrend.
However, given the current technical setup, the path of least resistance remains upward.
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