Despite growing speculations, the prolonged XRP lawsuit remains unresolved. The community is divided on the likelihood of an early settlement of the case. Meanwhile, experts unveil five potential outcomes for the Ripple vs SEC case, fueling further debate.
Let’s break down the potential outcomes of the XRP lawsuit and their implications for the Ripple ecosystem.
XRP Lawsuit Resolution: Things To Know
Though the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dismissed several crypto lawsuits over the past few weeks, the settlement of the Ripple case remains uncertain. Experts argue that an early settlement is unlikely to happen. All Things XRP, a leading XRP advocacy platform on X, outlined five potential scenarios for the lawsuit’s resolution, providing more clarity to the matter.
In an X post, All Things XRP unveiled five possible outcomes for the protracted XRP lawsuit. These include the SEC dropping its appeal, a reduced penalty, the appeal court reversing the decision, the fine being upheld but the injunction lifted, and the SEC completely dropping the case. Each outcome has a different likelihood of happening, ranging from 15% to 35%.
Will US SEC Withdraw Appeal in the Ripple vs SEC Case?
Aligning with many expert predictions, All Things XRP highlighted the possibility that the SEC might withdraw its appeal under new leadership, potentially paving the way for a resolution in the Ripple case.
However, the XRP advocate added that the existing $125 million fine and the injunction on institutional XRP sales, as ruled by Judge Torres, would still be in place. Experts consider this outcome plausible, with a likelihood of 35%, as policy shifts are possible, but the injunction’s persistence complicates the situation.
Reduced Penalty and Court Decision Reversal
As All Things XRP noted, there’s a 30% chance that Ripple could negotiate a reduced penalty with the SEC. For example, the $125 million fine could be lowered to $75 million as part of a potential settlement.
However, here too, the injunction remains a significant obstacle, as dissolving it would require court approval. The analyst suggested that Paul Atkins, once confirmed as SEC Chair, might advocate for this approach.
Interestingly, there is also a possibility of overturning Judge Analisa Torres’ XRP ruling, but with only 20% likelihood. The analyst predicted that the Second Circuit might uphold the SEC’s appeal, classifying programmatic XRP sales as securities under the Howey Test. This could lead to a hefty fine of over $500 million and an expanded injunction.
Prominent legal experts like Jeremy Hogan and MetaLawMan pointed out these intricacies as major obstacles to the lawsuit’s early end.
XRP Lawsuit Conclusion: Can Injunction be Lifted with Fine Upheld?
According to All Things XRP, Ripple’s cross-appeal could ultimately uphold the $125 million fine imposed by Judge Torres. In addition, Ripple may convince the court to drop the injunction if it shows there’s no ongoing securities law violations.
Notably, this would pave the way for institutional sales to resume. With a 25% likelihood, this outcome hinges on Ripple’s argument impressing the court and tackling the injunction’s concerns.
SEC To Abandon the Ripple vs SEC Case
With the least probability, the SEC might abandon its case against Ripple, effectively nullifying the $125 million fine and seeking court approval to dissolve the injunction. This outcome, though unlikely, could emerge amidst a broader deregulatory shift. But it would still require court approval, making its likelihood a mere 15%.
Recently, lawyer Jeremy Hogan commented that a March resolution is possible in the XRP lawsuit with the injunction concerns dealt with later.
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