- Bitcoin investors are on the edge amid a strong Japanese bond outlook.
- Bitcoin investment is gaining momentum amid strong institutional adoption.
The world’s biggest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), faces intense pressure amid surging Japanese bond yields. According to reports, Japan’s 20-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 2008, indicating potential risk aversion.
Possible Impact on Bitcoin
Last week, the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield rose 2.265%, hitting a 16-year record high since the global financial crisis. This surge coincides with increasing inflationary pressures and speculation of potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
The recent scenario is reminiscent of similar conditions in August 2024. At the time, the Yen’s strength resulted in a global sell-off from equities to Bitcoin. Accordingly, analysts and investors have similar occurrences that could happen in the current cycle.
They think Bitcoin could see a huge correction triggered by geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Higher yields suggest Japan’s Central Bank may hike interest rates to combat inflation or manage its massive public debt.
Japan’s bond yield and economy are in strong correction. When yields rise, it often indicates tighter financial conditions or economic uncertainties. Many investors anticipate that the BOJ will continue raising interest rates, promising higher yields.
This strengthens the Yen, reducing the appeal of carry trades. As noted in our earlier post, carry trades are an important source of global market liquidity since they allow investors to borrow Japan’s low-interest Yen. With the appeal for carry trades anticipated to reduce, market analysts have forecasted a pessimistic outcome for Bitcoin.
Pessimistic Bitcoin Sentiment
Many market analysts claim Bitcoin could drop to as low as $70,000 in the coming weeks amid macroeconomic jitters. Other factors likely to impact Bitcoin’s price include an ongoing tariff trade war and the general lack of market catalysts.
Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer at BTSE, commented that geopolitical and economic uncertainty is causing institutions to reduce their crypto holdings. He opined that Bitcoin could drop between $70,000 and $80,000 in the coming weeks.
“The high realized volatility has worsened the BTC risk-adjusted profile, with few (if any) immediate positive catalysts on the horizon,” SignalPlus’ Augustine Fan added.
How Bitcoin is Faring and Global Adoption
As of this writing, BTC price was trading at $83,700, down 1.38% in the last 24 hours. This brought weekly and monthly declines to 10.6% and 13.4%, respectively. Nevertheless, the trading volume spiked amazingly by over 182% to $44.5 billion.
Despite the dwindling prices, Bitcoin is seeing increased adoption. As outlined in our recent blog post, Bitcoin-based financial services company Fold has added $41 million worth of BTC to its treasury. This purchase has pushed the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to over 1,485 BTC, worth nearly $130 million.
Globally, crypto adoption is accelerating faster than early internet adoption. In our last update, we examined how institutional interest and Bitcoin ETFs drive broader mainstream acceptance.
