The HousingWire Economic Summit, held Feb. 26 in Dallas, provided valuable insights into the forces shaping the mortgage and housing markets in 2025.
With economists, analysts and industry leaders in the room, discussions revolved around key economic indicators, inventory shifts, technology advancements and what lenders should be doing right now to prepare for the next cycle.
Dark Matter Technologies makes it a priority to stay ahead of these trends, ensuring our clients have the right tools to scale efficiently when market conditions change.
That said, here are my top takeaways from the event—and why I felt it was so important for us to be there.
1. The worst may be over – but are you ready for what’s next?
The worst is behind us.
Logan Mohtashami, an expert in the mortgage and housing ecosystem and lead analyst for HousingWire, set the tone with this optimistic message. In other words, he said, the market is stabilizing, and we’re moving into a healthier phase. According to Mohtashami, a 6% mortgage rate is the “sweet spot”—a level where housing activity could meaningfully increase. If that holds, lenders who are prepared will find real opportunities for growth.
But here’s the critical question: If volumes were to double tomorrow, would you be ready? You should be! Now is the time to optimize operations, refine your technology stack and ensure that your infrastructure can handle an increase in demand.
2. Inventory is expanding—but housing dynamics are changing
One of the most significant shifts discussed at the summit was how housing inventory is evolving. Traditionally, home sellers were also buyers, which kept the market moving. Today, many millennials – often first-time buyers – are fueling demand, but they’re not selling homes. This shift is changing the supply equation, but several experts at the summit pointed to positive trends on the horizon:
- Housing inventory is up 24% year-over-year
- An 18% increase in inventory is projected for 2025
- California is leading in inventory growth
- Home price growth is expected to slow to 3.5% this year, while wages are rising—an encouraging sign that we’re moving toward a healthier market
For lenders, this means preparing for a shift in borrower demographics and ensuring loan origination processes are built for scale.
3. Homebuilder strategies matter more than ever
With affordability still a challenge, homebuilders are playing a more critical role in housing market activity. Experts at the summit highlighted that 16% of all new housing activity these days comes from new construction, making builder engagement strategy essential for lenders.
Additionally, rate buy-down incentives are playing a major role in helping move new home inventory. If lenders aren’t actively developing relationships with builders and structuring loan programs to meet this demand, they’re missing a critical opportunity.
4. The technology conversation: Using what you have and investing intelligently
Another key topic was how lenders are managing their technology investments. Over time, many organizations have accumulated tools—often to accommodate branch acquisitions or high-performing loan officers—but aren’t fully utilizing them.
If you are struggling to optimize your tech stack, it may be time to assess whether your systems are truly working for you. Experts at the summit emphasized that the cost to produce a loan remains high, largely due to inefficiencies in manual processes. At Dark Matter, we believe lenders should now be evaluating their current systems—whether that means streamlining automation, implementing AI-driven processes or improving CRM and LOS integration to enhance sales performance.
The discussion also touched on AI’s role in mortgage lending, with a key takeaway being that AI should be focused on driving revenue, not just reducing costs. It should be about helping lenders win new business, not just cutting expenses.
5. The market is local – and lenders must think that way
A common misconception in mortgage banking is that we operate in a national market. However, economists and industry leaders at the summit reinforced that every market is different. Rates, margins, and borrower programs vary widely depending on geography.
Lenders need to take a hyper-local approach, understanding the dynamics of each region, tailoring pricing strategies and ensuring loan officers are equipped with the right tools to serve their specific market.
Here’s Why We Attend Every Year
At Dark Matter Technologies, we don’t merely follow the industry—we help shape it. Attending events like the HousingWire Economic Summit allows us to stay ahead of key trends, so we can better serve our clients.
The topline takeaways were clear:
- If you’re not preparing now, you’ll be playing catch-up when the market turns.
- Lenders must streamline operations and drive efficiencies—before volumes increase.
- Technology is critical, but only when used effectively to drive real business outcomes.
We left the summit with a renewed focus on helping lenders prepare for what’s next. If rates drop and volume returns, the lenders who have their house in order will lead the market.
Those who don’t? They’ll be scrambling to keep up.
Let’s make sure you’re in the former category.
Brad Vasto, Chief Revenue Officer of Dark Matter Technologies, has worked in the mortgage banking and financial services industries for more than 30 years.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners.
To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.
